creativity::belief::ProfitStream Class Reference

This class represents an author's belief about the lifetime profits of a book based on partial lifetime profits. More...

#include <creativity/belief/ProfitStream.hpp>

Public Member Functions
double	predict (eris::SharedMember< Book > book, unsigned int draws)
	Given a book, this uses the profit of the first \(K\) periods the book has been on the market to predict the remaining cumulative lifetime profit, \(\widehat\pi_{remaining}\). More...
virtual std::string	display_name () const override
	Returns "ProfitStream", the name of this model.

Detailed Description

This class represents an author's belief about the lifetime profits of a book based on partial lifetime profits.

The model is of the form:

\[ \pi_{remaining} = \beta_0 \pi_0 + \beta_1 \pi_1 + \ldots + \beta_{K-1} \pi_{K-1} + u \]

where:

• \(K\) is the number of periods of profit to consider
• \(\pi_i\) is the profit the book earned in the period in which it had age \(i\)

This model is designed to allow agents to predict the remaining lifetime profits of a book of a given age \(i \in {1, \ldots, K}\) by using multiple iterations of the model (with \(K \in \{1, \hdots, \overbar{K}\}\)), so as to predict the future profitability of a book to aid in the decision to keep the book on the market.

Updating of beliefs occurs when books finish their natural life (i.e. leave the market). At this point, a book of age \(j\) contributes one data point to each model with \(K \leq j\): one data point for each period of its life.

\(\beta\) values are not restricted.

Member Function Documentation

predict()

double creativity::belief::ProfitStream::predict	(	eris::SharedMember< Book >	book,
		unsigned int	draws
	)

Given a book, this uses the profit of the first \(K\) periods the book has been on the market to predict the remaining cumulative lifetime profit, \(\widehat\pi_{remaining}\).

Parameters

book	the book, which should have an age of at least K (otherwise the prediction will be wrong as 0 will be used for revenue in \((age, K]\)).
draws	the number of draws to use for prediction

Inheritance diagram for creativity::belief::ProfitStream:

Collaboration diagram for creativity::belief::ProfitStream:

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The documentation for this class was generated from the following file:

• creativity/belief/ProfitStream.hpp